42% of commercial leases are up for renewal. Is your book ready?

Right now, without opening anything, how many of your clients have a lease expiring in the next 12 months?

If you cannot answer that question in under five seconds, you are not alone. Most leasing brokers cannot. The renewal calendar lives inside signed PDFs, scattered across email threads, deal folders, and the back of a notebook. After the deal closes, the lease goes dark.

That worked when renewals were a slow trickle. They are not anymore.

The data: a renewal surge is already here

CBRE projects that 42% of commercial leases are up for renewal in the next 24 months. That is not a normal cycle. It is the largest concentrated wave of renewal activity in a decade, driven by the cluster of five and ten year deals signed in the post-pandemic re-papering of office, industrial, and retail.

For a leasing broker, that statistic is not abstract. It means your book of business is sitting on a renewal cliff. The clients you closed in 2021 and 2022 are the same clients deciding right now whether to stay, move, or renegotiate. And they are deciding whether to call you, or whether they have not heard from you in eighteen months and so they will take the call from someone else.

The brokers who track expiry dates are already winning

The brokers we talk to who are crushing it right now have one habit in common. They know exactly when every client lease expires. Not approximately. Exactly. They know it twelve months out, six months out, ninety days out. And they make the call first.

That habit is not about working harder. The HubSpot Sales Statistics report puts the average broker at two hours of actual selling per eight hour day. The other six hours go to admin, lookups, and reconstructing context that should have been at hand. The broker who wins the renewal is the broker for whom the expiry date and the client context are already surfaced before the call.

That is the gap. The work is not "track every lease in a spreadsheet." Spreadsheets rot. The work is making the lease document itself produce the intelligence the broker needs, automatically, and keeping it alive after the deal closes.

Why this is a broker problem, not a firm problem

Firms do not lose renewals. Brokers do. The relationship sits with the broker. The renewal call goes to the broker. The commission flows through the broker. When the broker forgets the expiry date, the firm does not feel it until quarter end. The broker feels it the day a competitor closes the renewal.

That is why the answer is not a CRE-flavored seat license that the firm rolls out top down. The answer is client intelligence the broker actually owns, that travels with the broker, and that pays for itself the first time it surfaces a renewal you would have otherwise missed.

What to do this quarter

Three concrete moves, in order of effort:

1. Pull every lease your clients have signed in the last five years into one place. Not metadata. The actual documents. The expiry date is the floor. The renewal options, escalation clauses, and assignment rights are where the conversations live.
2. Sort by expiry date, not by close date. The close date is a vanity metric. The expiry date is the appointment on your calendar twelve months from now.
3. Make the twelve month call. Not the ninety day call. By ninety days, the client has already been pitched. Twelve months out, you are early, you are alone, and you are the broker who showed up first.

Lupa exists to make all three automatic. Every client lease becomes a living dossier. Renewal radar fires twelve months out, six months out, ninety days out. The data stays yours, fully exportable, never trained on by anyone else.

You close the deal. The wolf pack tracks.